The most likely track area of the center. The areaĮxperiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at leastħ4 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds ofģ9-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing TheirĮffects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. The cone is then formedīy smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles. Previous five years official forecast errors. Where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the Toįorm the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along theįorecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, Indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropicalĬyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. Stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. The track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the Uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid whiteĪnd stippled white areas in the graphic. NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time:ĭ: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH Then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. Tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the centerĪt the times indicated. The orange circle indicates the current position of theĬenter of the tropical cyclone. Tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), How to use the cone graphic (video): About this product: By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the "Full Forecast" and "3 day" graphic will be identical Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. Please continue to monitor local media stations, DDM’s website () and Facebook at BVIDDM for regular updates.ĭisclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. Though squalls could contain gusts up to tropical storm force, we are not expected to receive significant rain or destructive wind for the islands from Jose. The British Virgin Islands remains under a Tropical Storm Watch and gusty squalls are possible late Saturday and into Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 938 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. ![]() Gradual weakening is expected after that. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down, could occur during the next day or so. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph with higher gusts. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close to or just east of the northern Leeward Islands. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to begin overnight and continue through the weekend. ![]() Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph. At 800 PM, the eye of Hurricane Jose was at located at 16.7 North 58.8 West or about 305 miles East South East of the northern Leeward Islands.
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